Death comes from the skies: The Evolution of UAVs

I don’t want to cause alarm, but we’re all doomed. Ugly planes are going to kill us all.

Here’s how it starts:

Surveillance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

These have been in use for years. Controlled from the ground, they can stay aloft for days at a time and transmit surveillance information (radio intercepts, photographs, video, video, synthetic aperture radar etc) back to base.

The advantage to not carrying ordinance (guns) is that you can stay airborne for longer. The ‘Vulture‘ is a surveillance UAV under development that is predicted to be able to stay airborne for 5 years!

But I guess that’s about as scary as challenging you to a 5-year staring competition, or dobbing on you every time you do something. Pretty annoying, but otherwise harmless.

Violent UAVs

Originally for reconnaissance, they were then lightly armed, now they’re the spearhead of the attack. Death by drone plane is fast becoming the most popular way to die in Pakistan.

The Predator drone was their most popular. It was originally for reconnaissance, but has now been armed up. These had to be piloted by a controller. The advantage is that you don’t need to risk a pilot’s life, and he can stay at home in Washinton DC, catch a taxi to work, fly planes all day killing ‘insurgents’ and then back home in a taxi (probably driven by his victim’s cousin) for dinner with his less dead family.

Semi Autonomous UAVs

They're ugly because the Taliban don't have planes and can't launch air attacks

Next came the Reaper drone. This one can fly and automated path designated by a controller, and therefore doesn’t need constant control. When they arrive at the end of their plotted course, they’re again flown by a controller. Reapers are more powerful, faster, and carry 15 times the ordinance of their predecessor, the Predator.

This means that you can send a bunch of them out to circle over cities and look around for stuff, and each time one comes across something interesting the controller takes over and presses the button.

This has the advantage of allowing more planes to be in the air than controllers to fly them – as each controller can have 12 planes flying autonomously and one under direct control.

The next step…

Autonomous, decision making attack drones

Some air force guys say that they’ll be here in 2047.

These planes roll themselves out of the hangar, plot a course, take off and fly to their destination, altering their path along the way, making adjustments for weather and enemy activity. Once they’ve arrived, they’re taught to recognize enemies, detect ‘hostile intent’ such as gunfire, and make a decision whether to attack – all without human intervention.

Scared? They already exist. And they work as a team…

“On February 4, 2005, on their 50th flight, the two X-45As took off into a patrol pattern and were then alerted to the presence of a target. The X-45As then autonomously determined which vehicle held the optimum position, weapons [...] and fuel load to properly attack the target. After making that decision, one of the X-45As changed course and the pilot-operator allowed it to attack the simulated antiaircraft emplacement. Following a successful strike, another simulated threat, this time disguised, emerged and was subsequently destroyed by the second X-45A. This demonstrated the ability of these vehicles to work autonomously as a team and manage their resources, as well as to engage previously-undetected targets, which is significantly harder than following a predetermined attack path.” – Wiki

Now don’t be worried about deadly planes making ‘decisions’ and humans ‘allowing’. We’re assured that these planes aren’t being used until 2047, and until then they’ll call back to human controllers for a ‘Caesar says thumbs down’ on whether to kill or not. As we repeatedly see, humans aren’t very good at killing the right people anyway.

However, it is inevitable – because planes can are being built faster and faster, while humans take 9 months to be born, a further 18 years to enter an academy, and a further few years to train up as a pilot. We’re unreliable and moody, and soon there will be many more planes than ‘pilots’ to ask. It’ll be a matter of checking the ‘Do not ask me in future’ box.

That is the tipping point, and it will happen within our lifetimes: Computers deciding who lives and dies.